Tourism sales climate index

Travel agents' expectations reach new record high


The upturn continues: After months of doom and gloom, the easing of travel restrictions and proceeding vaccinations have significantly lifted the mood in German travel agencies in June. The sales situation has improved considerably while future expectations even reached a record high.
Sinking infection rates and better travel conditions restored hope for German travel agents: More and more destinations are open for business, and both tour operators and suppliers announce an extension of their offerings. According to the current tourism sales climate index recorded by consulting agency Dr. Fried & Partner, the travel agents' expectations ("Erwartung") for the next six months reached an index level of 134 in June – a big jump after the index passed the 100 mark in May and by far the highest level since the start of the index in 2005.

Optimistic outlook after lengthy dry spell

The percentage of respondents who expect demand for travel services to rise in the next 6 months had already more than doubled from 21.4% in April to 45.9% in May – now it jumped to 78.9% in June. Pessimistic assessments dropped markedly compared to May: 11.0% (20.2% in May) anticipate a flat demand, 10.1% (33.9% in May) even worry about a further drop.

The upswing is also reflected in the improved assessment of future earnings – although the change compared to the previous month is not that extreme: Now more thank half of all agents (54.2% compared to 31.5% in May) expect an improvement within the next 6 months.

Whereas the percentage of respondents who anticipate a stable earnings situation has slightly fallen from  36.1% to 32.7%, only 13.1 (compared to 32.4% in May) remain pessimistic as regards future earnings.

Sales situation is getting better

And the current sales situation ("Geschäftslage") is improving as well: While May marked the first month since
spring 2020 when travel agents described their current sales situation as "good", this percentage increased rapidly from 0.9% to 15.6%. Moreover, the share of agents assessing the situation as satisfying almost quintupled from 8.3% to 40.4%. And the percentage of "bad" answers has decreased by more than half from 90.8% to 44.0%.


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