TDA analysis October

Summer 2022 just falls short of break-even

Summer 2022 just missed pre-Covid-19 levels. According to TDA analysis, the industry was down just three percent from 2019. However, the current winter season leaves much to be desired: last-minute travel continues to be the name of the game.
With the evaluation of October sales, Travel Data & Analytics (TDA) takes stock of the past tourism year. And the results are mixed. Compared to the pre-Covid-19 summer of 2019, the 2022 summer season is only three percent behind. However, the overall picture for the 2021/22 tourism year does not look exhilarating.

Because of the weak winter season 2021/22, which had closed with minus 34% due to Covid-19, the entire year could achieve 13% less sales. Overall, the travel industry is missing almost €2.3 billion in holiday travel sales.

Whether the current tourism year can close this gap is also questionable. This is because the current winter season shows a 27% drop in sales at the end of October. While this is three percentage points better than the previous month, it is significantly worse than the previous year – not to mention the pre-Covid-19 year 2019, with incoming bookings five percent below October 2021 and 14% below October 2019 in terms of sales.

Measured in terms of people having booked a holiday, the shortfall is even higher. "Instead of Covid-19, it is now apparently more financial concerns in the face of extremely rising prices, especially in the energy sector, that are leading to a wait-and-see booking behaviour," TDA says.

Only Turkey is above pre-Covid-19 levels

Winter bookings are primarily accounted for by long-haul travel (19% share of sales excluding cruises) and the classic winter destinations Turkey and the Canary Islands (18% each). Egypt accounts for 12%. Cumulatively, however, only Turkey managed to exceed the sales level of winter 2018/19 (plus 14%).

The outlook for next summer also looks bleak. It is true that every third Euro of sales in October is accounted for by the 2023 summer season, which means that incoming bookings are nine percent up on the previous year. But the gap to the pre-Covid-19 summer of 2019 is huge, at minus 42%.


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